NFL Week 16 Preview









Season Record: 151-69
Season Against the Spread: 93-79


Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (Spread: New England -10.5)

I really like the Patriots to win this game, which should seem obvious since they destroyed Denver last week.  But that win was a bit of a fluke – Denver had a ton of turnovers which ruined their otherwise well played first half, and the game just went downhill from there.  Meanwhile, the Dolphins had an excellent game against the Bills, which included Reggie Bush breaking 200 rushing yards in the game.  I’m going to take the Patriots to win, but the Dolphins are simply too good to lose by this much.  Fantasy Tip: Start Patriots QB Brady, WRs Welker and Branch, TEs Gronkowski and Hernandez, Dolphins RB Bush, and WR Marshall.  This one could be a shootout, so start Dolphins QB Moore.  Pick: Patriots to win and cover.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (Spread: Tennessee -7.5)

It looks like rookie QB Jake Locker will start for the Titans this week, which is a good thing since Hasselbeck has not been playing well this second half of the season.  Even though the Titans haven’t been playing well, they do still have a shot at playoffs and should give this game their all.  I expect the Titans to win this one. Fantasy Tip: Start Titans RB Johnson, WR Washington, Titans defense, Jagars RB Jones-Drew.  Titans TE Jared Cook and QB Jake Locker are also good sleepers here.  Pick: Titans to win and cover.

New York Giants at New York Jets (Spread: NY Jets -2.5)

These teams are both pretty equal, but I see the outcome of this one being decided by defense.  Right now the Giants don’t have a good secondary, but they do have DE Jason Pierre-Paul who singlehandedly changes game.  The Jets don’t have SS Jim Leonhard, but they still have CB Darrelle Revis and the rest of their dynamic defense.  I still think the Jets have a better defense and better chance of winning than the Giants.  Fantasy Tip: Start Giants RB Bradshaw, WRs Nicks, Cruz, Manningham, Giants defense, Jets RB Greene, WR Holmes, TE Keller, Jets defense.  Pick: Jets to win and cover.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (Spread: Carolina -8.5)

The Bucs are playing atrocious football right now.  It’s hard not to like an explosive Panthers offense against them.  Fantasy Tip: Start Panthers QB Newton, RB Williams, WR Smith, Bucs RB Blount.  If you’re absolutely desperate, Panthers defense is a sleeper here.  Pick: Panthers to win and cover.

St. Louis Rams at Pittsburgh Steelers (Spread: Pittsburgh -15.5)

In this game, both starting QBs are out and will be replaced by Rams backup Kellen Clemens and Steelers backup Charlie Batch.  I like the Steelers to win this, but not by enough to cover the spread.  Fantasy Tip: Start Steelers RB Mendenhall, WRs Wallace and Brown, Steelers defense, Rams RB Jackson, WR Lloyd.  Pick: Steelers to win, Rams to cover.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (Spread: Baltimore -13.5)

The Ravens need to win if they want to clinch their division.  This is the perfect game to do exactly that.  I expect the Ravens to be playing great football on both sides of the ball, even though Ravens WR Boldin is out with a knee injury.  Don’t forget that the Browns are starting QB Wallace, and Ravens LB Lewis is back.  Fantasy Tip: Start Ravens RB Rice, WR Smith, Ravens defense.  Pick: Ravens to win, Browns to cover.

Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals (Spread: Cincinnati -4.5)

I don’t like the Cardinals to do very well here.  They’re starting QB John Skelton and RB Beanie Wells I banged up.  The Bengals need to hold on to playoff hopes, and should be able to win this one behind QB Andy Dalton.  Fantasy Tip: Start Cardinals RB Wells (if active), WR Fitzgerald, Bengals RB Benson, WR Green.  Bengals QB Dalton and WR Simpson are deep sleepers if you need some.  Pick: Bengals to win and cover.

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (Spread: Washington -6.5)

The Vikings secondary is probably the worst in the league right now, and their terrible offense doesn’t help either.  Take the Redskins.  Fantasy Tip: Start Vikings RB Peterson, WR Harvin, Redskins RB Helu, WRs Moss and Gaffney, Redskins defense.  Redskins QB Grossman is a deep sleeper if you need one.  Pick: Redskins to win and cover.

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (Spread: Denver -3.5)

Denver has a very favourable matchup here against a weak overall team.  I told you back at the start of the year that the Bills were a pretender.  Fantasy Tip: Start Broncos QB Tebow, RB McGahee WR Thomas, Broncos defense, Bills RB Spiller.  Bills WR Johnson has a groin injury and should be avoided.  Pick: Broncos to win and cover.

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (Spread: Kansas City -1.5)

Are the Chiefs seriously favoured to beat a team that barely lost to Detroit last week by the smallest margin ever?  I’m guessing this line is this way because the Chiefs are coming off a win against the Packers, but the Packers also did have an off day.  I’m taking the Raiders here.  Fantasy Tip: Start Raiders RB Bush, WR Heyward-Bey, Chiefs WR Bowe.  Pick: Raiders to win and cover.

San Diego Chargers at Detroit Lions (Spread: Detroit -2.5)

The Chargers are playing excellent football right now, clinging on to their slim playoff chances.  Meanwhile, the Lions are playing only in the second half, and winning a few games while not really playing well except for the Stafford-Johnson combination.  Fantasy Tip: This will be a shootout, so start Chargers QB Rivers, RB Mathews, WR Jackson, TE Gates, Lions QB Stafford, RB Smith, WR Johnson, TE Pettigrew.  Pick: Chargers to win and cover.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (Spread: Dallas -2.5)

Some of the injuries for this game – Ealges CB Samuel is out, Cowboys RB Jones, WR Robinson, and LB Ware are questionable.  The Cowboys are really banged up and are already 1-2 in December, with their lone win coming against one of the worst playing teams right now in the Bucs.  I’ll take the hot Eagles here.  Fantasy Tip: This could be a shootout, so take Eagles QB Vick, RB McCoy, WRs Maclin and Jackson, TE Celek, Cowboys QB Romo, RB Jones (if active), WRs Austin, Bryant, Robinson (if active), TE Witten.  Pick: Ealges to win and cover.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (Spread: San Francisco -2.5)

I can’t trust the Seahawks offense against the 49ers amazing defense, even in Qwest Field.  I’m going to have to take the 49ers here.  Fantasy Tip: This will be a low scoring game so start 49ers RB Gore, TE Davis, WR Crabtree, 49ers Defense, Seahawks defense.  Be very careful about starting Seahawks RB Lynch since the 49ers haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown all year.  Pick: 49ers to win and cover.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (Spread: Green Bay -12.5)

The difference between the Chiefs (who beat the Packers) and the Bears is that the Bears have no QB and no RB.  The Bears are starting QB Josh McCown this week.  I like the Packers to bounce back here.  Fantasy Tip: Start Packers QB Rodgers, WRs Nelson, Driver, Jones, TE Finley, Packers Defense.  Bears RB Bell is a sleeper.  Pick: Packers to win and cover.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (Spread: New Orleans -6.5)

Last time these two played in Atlanta, the Saints won 26-23.  I really like the Saints to win this game, especially at home, but 6.5 seems like a lot to cover against a team fighting for its playoff life.  Remember, the Falcons have an exceptional offense and a pretty good defense too.  Fantasy Tip: This is going to be a shootout for sure.  Start Saints QB Brees, RB Sproles, WRs Colston, Moore, TE Graham, Falcons QB Ryan, RB Turner, WRs White, Jones, TE Gonzalez.  Pick: Saints to win, Falcons to cover.




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